seth hahn

The SPY moved up another .36 points today, which isn’t horrible, but I’ve passed the peak of the profit potential at the expiration line. I tried to move up my calls today, but I didn’t have enough option buying power! I couldn’t even move up my puts either. I definitely need to spend less than 50% of my account on my opening trades next time.

I’m pessimistic, but not crushed. The VIX is at a low, and hopefully it will spike up. But I’m not counting on it. If I lose over the next couple days, it probably will only be a few hundred bucks. I’ll close out my total position if the price continues to climb. But if it falls… that would be great. I may not profit at all this month. But I’ve learned my lesson again: don’t try to predict price!

Looks like I need to stop trying to predict price, because it hasn’t worked. I was wrong in predicting a bearish move, at least in the short term. The SPY blasted right through the resistance line I drew and instead followed the upward channel. It’s moving painfully upward while the bears are showing a lot of resistance, but it’s still climbing upward along the lower end of the channel.

I’m not in a horrible position, but I will likely need to make an adjustment tomorrow morning. But that’s okay, I’m still 30 days out from expiration. I decided this morning that I would make an adjustment if the price reached 117.

Delta is currently at -236, Vega is -92.

This is it.

I’ve been paper trading up until now. Today is my first day using real money! This is for real.

I was going to buy a Double Calendar, but IWM and EEM had negative skews. So I sold an Iron Condor on the SPY.
I’m almost a full point above center, because I’m betting on the market being bearish soon. I sold CALLS and PUTS for at least $1, going as far OTM as possible. Looks like the market is predicting a bearish fall, because my graph is optimal when I sell puts further OTM. Current price is 114.96, and my breakevens are at 110.08 and 117.92. I’d prefer the breakevens to be a little wider, but at least the downside breakeven is close to 5 points lower than current price. If SPY goes up, I’m only 3 points from my breakeven, so I will watch this carefully.
I used half of my option power (was $5000, now $2378), hopefully leaving enough money for adjustments.
The SPY is my only position this month, because negative skews kept me from buying double calendars.