Today is the first day that the standard deviation (68% chance of expiring within a specified range) fell within my breakevens! Look at the lighter blue rectangle between the two red lines on the profit/loss graph. That area, which represents a 68% probability, is now right in the center of my P/L graph, BETWEEN the breakevens. That is a good sign! The standard deviation area will only decrease in size (narrower in width) as we get closer to expiration.
Archive for February, 2011
I believe we’re in the clear. SBUX traded sideways for the first half of the day, and slowly dropped to close at $0.15 below the open. But I anticipated more movement on a dividend day. I predict that SBUX will continue to bounce modestly over the next several days, and I think there’s a good chance now that it will close between my breakevens.
SBUX has held nicely the past few days, coming off of a big drop in the overall market last week. Starbucks will pay out $0.13 dividends on Monday the 13th…. we will see how that affects price. So far, with 13 days to go until expiration, I’m in good shape, as long as Monday doesn’t throw me off course.